- A $500M TRUMP token unlock may lead to heavy sell pressure, possibly dragging price down 40% to the $5.75 range.
- RSI at 39.55 and flat A/D line at -303.83M show weak momentum and sustained distribution with minimal accumulation.
- Futures open interest hits 7-week low, showing trader caution; TRUMP price stuck in $10–$11 range with limited upside signals.
A major token unlock could bring increased volatility to the TRUMP coin, currently trading around $10.17. Analysts warn that nearly $500 million worth of TRUMP tokens will soon be released into circulation. This event may strain the market’s ability to absorb excess supply.
With sentiment already weakening, the influx could push TRUMP’s price down majorly. Forecasts suggest a possible 40% correction, dragging the price as low as $5.75. Reduced interest in derivatives markets and limited accumulation are compounding investor concerns in the short term.
Insider Unlock Raises Supply Concerns
The largest threat currently is from the massive token unlock scheduled to take place. A substantial amount of TRUMP remains locked with insiders. Once released, these tokens could flood the market quickly. This has led to caution among the market due to the volume of potential sell pressure.
Unlike past unlocks, this event coincides with weak trading activity, making the risk more severe. Furthermore, without sufficient demand to offset the supply increase, the imbalance could put persistent downward pressure on price.
Market Sentiment Weakens Amid Falling Futures Interest
Open interest in TRUMP futures has dropped to its lowest level in seven weeks. According to analysts, this shows diminishing confidence among traders. With derivatives positioning growing weaker, fewer speculators are betting on an upside rebound.
This limits any near-term upside potential, especially if the unlock leads to heavy selling. At the same time, the spot market shows no signs of strength. TRUMP’s price has remained locked in a tight $10–$11 range since late May, showing reduced volatility and indecision.
Technical Indicators Show Continued Distribution
Key technical indicators suggest the market outlook remains fragile. The RSI is at 39.55, trending below its moving average of 40.47. This downward movement shows weak momentum, although not yet fully oversold.
The indicator is far from levels that suggest a reversal. The Accumulation/Distribution line is flat and deeply negative at -303.83 million. This shows the ongoing sell-side pressure with minimal buying activity.
On June 15th, on the upside, TRUMP could bounce off the $10.00 level and reach between $10.80 and $11.20. A bearish scenario may unfold if support breaks, sending the token toward the $9.30–$9.70 range.
With insider tokens set to unlock and demand showing signs of weakness, TRUMP faces a potential drop toward $5.75. The combination of low futures activity, negative technicals, and limited accumulation places short-term pressure on the asset. Market reaction following the token release will determine whether prices hold steady or slip below key support.
