- SOL eyes $175 to $190 if it breaks $158.66 resistance; 20 SMA at $141.18 is the key support with rising ETF momentum.
- Whale unstakes 92.6K SOL after 10 months, netting a $500K loss, adding volatility as $13.5B USDC minted on Solana in 2025.
- MVRV Z-Score at 26.51 indicates short term overvaluation; failure to hold $140 may lead to a drop to $101 or $72 support levels.
On May 1, at the time of writing, Solana was trading at $150.90, a 2.28% gain over the last 24 hours. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, there is now a 90% probability that a Solana based ETF could be approved within the year. Most crypto ETF applications have already been acknowledged by the SEC, with final deadlines scheduled for Q4 2025.
Alongside SOL, other leading assets like Litecoin and XRP are also being considered for ETF approval. Circle’s recent move to mint $250 million in USDC on Solana adds further momentum. So far in 2025, the firm has minted $13.5 billion USDC on the network.
Meanwhile, on-chain data from Onchain Lens revealed that a major whale recently unstaked 92,663.58 SOL worth $13.51 million. This came after 10 months of staking that yielded 5,554 SOL. Despite the rewards, the whale faces a net loss of nearly $500,000 based on original stake value.
Technical Patterns and Price Outlook
Price pattern shows that SOL has formed higher highs and higher lows since early April. The 20 day simple moving average is at $141.18 and now acts as a critical support level.
Source: TradingView
The price is trading near the upper Bollinger Band at $158.66, which has often acted as dynamic resistance. Volume is at 751.02K, showing moderate interest but not enough to confirm a strong breakout.
Analyst Ali pointed to a narrowing of the Bollinger Bands on the 4 hour chart, which typically precedes large moves. However, price still faces stiff resistance at $158.66. Should buyers push above this level with strong volume, it may open a path to $175 or even $190.
Key Price Targets and Support Levels
Analyst Rose outlined multiple key levels, suggesting that $141 and $135 are the long zones. Upside targets include $160, $220, and $280. The $180 level is a medium term resistance zone, with further targets between $268 and $269. This is a potential 165% gain from recent lows if momentum sustains.
Source: Rose on X
The broader trend shows a zigzag upward movement within a broad ascending channel. A recent bounce from the $101 support level suggests strong demand. However, if price fails to hold above $140, it may retest the $101 to $72 support range, which carries higher risk.
On-chain trends and ETF optimism strengthen May outlook
Meanwhile, the MVRV Z-Score is at 26.51, hinting that SOL could be relatively overvalued in the short term. Unless strong bullish momentum follows, this could increase correction risks. The ETF optimism, on-chain accumulation, and technical positioning will likely influence SOL’s price in May 2025.
