- Bitcoin’s risk score of 60 resembles pre-rally zones from 2017 and 2021, signaling more upside ahead in this bull cycle.
- Dormant Bitcoin supply at 74% aligns with past breakout periods, supporting a bullish continuation.
- Altcoin risk scores, as low as 25, reflect early-cycle positioning similar to 2020 and 2016 pre-rally conditions.
Bitcoin’s latest consolidation phase may be misinterpreted as a market peak, but new risk data suggests otherwise. Crypto analyst Dan Gambardello has presented detailed insights through a proprietary system, indicating that Bitcoin and altcoins remain far from overbought levels.
According to the data, Bitcoin’s current risk score is at 60, historically known as the zone before major parabolic moves in past bull cycles. Meanwhile, altcoins show even lower risk exposure, indicating unrealized growth potential across the broader crypto market.
Bitcoin Risk Score Suggests Room for More Upside
Gambardello’s analysis focuses on a risk model integrating price, volatility, volume, game theory, and asset classification. Bitcoin currently holds a moderate-risk score of 60. This same level preceded major rallies in previous cycles, including 2017 and 2021.
During those periods, Bitcoin’s risk score gradually climbed into the 70 to 90 range before major tops were established. He points out that the current cycle is slower than earlier ones, with consolidation phases lasting multiple months.
However, that extended consolidation may be a sign of healthy growth rather than exhaustion. According to the analyst, Bitcoin’s current structure resembles previous bull setups, marked by repeated swing highs and corrections, which ultimately led to big rallies.
Historical comparisons show that previous pre-rally scores also hovered around 60 before explosive upside.
Dormant Supply and Macro Trends Strengthen the Case
The dormant Bitcoin supply, which tracks coins unmoved for over one year, currently is at 74%. This level is consistent with past pre-rally periods, according to Gambardello’s custom risk heatmap.
Two cycles ago, a similar dormant supply level of 74% appeared just before Bitcoin’s breakout. The model, while not incorporating macroeconomic conditions, now interacts with an autonomous system named Zero.
During an internal session, Zero confirmed that current monetary policy trends, including potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and institutional flows, align with the continuation of a bullish phase.
It emphasized that although Bitcoin trades at $118,600, the historical risk score context supports further upside.
Altcoin Market Cap Risk at Cycle-Bottom Levels
While Bitcoin shows moderate risk, the broader altcoin market is well below peak stress levels. According to Dan, the long-term altcoin risk score is at 25. Historical references show similar scores during September 2020 and December 2016, both preceding major altcoin rallies.
The total altcoin market has recorded consistent higher highs and higher lows since bottoming. However, price action is muted relative to previous market expansions. Altcoins like Chainlink and Cardano also show low-risk scores of 40 and 41 respectively, supporting the view that they remain in early-stage positioning within the current cycle.
Continued Model Monitoring Recommended
Data from the risk engine show unemotional metrics that exclude macro catalysts like ETF approvals or regulatory reform. However, Gambardello noted that the total crypto market cap risk score remains low at 34. The analyst advised continued monitoring as scores rise to signal increased risk and potential profit-taking zones.
Overall, the Bitcoin risk score, dormant supply heatmap, and altcoin risk data collectively show the crypto market may not have peaked. Slower cycle pacing and low-risk indicators across multiple assets point to a continuation phase rather than a top.
