- QCP Broadcast reported that markets now view U.S. and China tariffs as symbolic, reducing their impact on asset performance.
- CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin’s perpetual-spot gap narrowing, hinting at weakening selling pressure in futures markets.
- Traders aggressively bought BTC $100K calls for March 2026, showing growing long-term optimism despite near-term caution.
Escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China have failed to shake market confidence as Bitcoin holds its ground. Following the Trump administration’s 145% tariff on Chinese goods and China’s 125% countermeasure, risk assets have remained resilient.
Markets have now grown insensitive to these extreme figures, according to QCP Broadcast. As tariffs increase beyond symbolic levels, their immediate market impact appears to diminish. However, the sudden policy shift over the weekend marked a new turning point.
Smartphone Exemptions Narrow Trade Focus
Despite maintaining a firm tone, both countries have quietly taken steps that hint at softening. On Friday, the U.S. removed tariffs on several key items, including smartphones, chips, and computers.
This exemption followed a full week of increased rhetoric and record-setting levies. As per QCP Broadcast, Chinese authorities responded by urging the U.S. to eliminate all imposed tariffs. While officials maintain a strong public stance, the market sees signs of tactical retreat.
Meanwhile, analysts say the U.S. is looking for more than just a standoff with China. According to QCP, Washington is also managing bond market reactions, leading to further complexity.
However, the broader crypto market reacted swiftly to policy shifts. Santiment reported a sharp crypto uptick, with Bitcoin hitting $85.9K following tariff exemptions. This shows the sensitivity of digital assets to changes in macroeconomic sentiment.
Futures Sentiment Turns Cautiously Optimistic
In derivatives markets, investor behavior suggests a mix of caution and early-stage optimism. QCP noted that BTC risk reversals still lean toward puts until June. However, longer-dated positions reflect a more bullish stance.
On Saturday, traders showed strong interest in BTC 27MAR26 $100K calls, pointing to positive sentiment for the long term. This behavior aligns with changes seen in spot future relationships. According to CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin perpetual-spot gap is narrowing after weeks of remaining negative.
This metric, which compares Binance’s perpetual futures and spot prices, indicates trader expectations. Historically, a narrowing gap has preceded major upward moves. The trend shift now occurs even at higher price levels, showing increased market strength.
Narrowing Gap Suggests Pressure Is Easing
While the gap remains negative, its contraction may indicate that recent selling pressure is losing intensity. Profit-taking following Bitcoin’s recent $90K high likely contributed to earlier downside pressure.
However, the narrowing gap from late 2024 into early 2025 suggests a reduction in bearish sentiment, according to CryptoQuant. This metric led market rallies in both 2020 and 2024. Although trends can change quickly, the current narrowing points to growing confidence.
