- The $4-6 billion market cap range holds the highest probability at 40%.
- Traders assign a 24% chance to a $6-8 billion FDV after launch.
- Polymarket participants give the lowest odds to a market cap below $4 billion.
Traders on Polymarket are actively speculating on Pump.fun’s potential market capitalization, one day after its token launch. The platform displays shifting probabilities across several market cap brackets, reflecting changing sentiment. Based on current data, the $4-6 billion range leads with a 40% likelihood, highlighting traders’ most favored scenario. The prediction market opened in advance of the July 31, 2025, deadline, with active bidding across all price ranges.
As activity builds, notable differences emerge between the predicted ranges. The $6-8 billion bracket follows at 24%, while a post-launch cap exceeding $8 billion holds a 19% probability. On the lower end, a market cap under $4 billion holds a 17% chance. Traders continuously adjust their positions, responding to evolving launch expectations and token valuation dynamics.
Volumes Reflect Varying Confidence Across Market Cap Ranges
Looking deeper at the trading volumes, the $4-6 billion range has attracted $346 in volume. This supports its standing as the most probable outcome. Comparatively, the <$4 billion category, despite holding only a 17% chance, has gathered the highest volume at $1,226.
Meanwhile, the $8 billion range shows $525 in traded volume, reflecting significant but lower confidence. The $6-8 billion bracket trails with $108 in total volume. These figures demonstrate how participants allocate their bets, balancing between higher risk and potential reward.
Market Resolution Linked to Token Launch and Valuation Data
According to market rules, the FDV will be determined 24 hours post-launch, excluding locked or unswappable tokens. The final valuation will rely on the most liquid price source available.
If Pump.fun does not launch by July 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No.” This clause ensures clarity regarding the launch status and evaluation timeline. As the market nears this deadline, trading activity will likely reflect sharper expectations about the actual token launch and its initial valuation.
