- Solana trades above its 20-day SMA at $155.607, indicating modest bullish momentum with resistance at $169.612.
- ETF approval hopes surge as Polymarket shows 90% chance, boosting long-term optimism and investor interest.
- MVRV Z-Score of 28.749 suggests potential short-term overvaluation despite rising price and volume trends.
On June 16, Solana (SOL) was trading at $157.38, a 7.95% gain over the past 24 hours. The digital asset had a 4.34% weekly increase, though it remained 6.71% down over the month. The token’s market cap was at $82.72 billion, rising by 7.82% with a sharp surge in trading volume, which doubled to $4.53 billion. The sudden spike in trading activity and improving price outlook indicate renewed investor interest. However, the short-term outlook remains unstable.
ETF Hopes Trigger Long-Term Optimism
Investor focus has shifted to the rising probability of a U.S.-listed Solana ETF. Polymarket data showed a 90% chance of SEC approval, up from recent weeks. This followed Invesco Galaxy’s Solana ETF registration in Delaware, which is the start of the regulatory process.
According to Solid Intel, this filing could lead to further scrutiny by the SEC. JPMorgan analysts projected $6 billion in inflows within a year of approval, nearly double Ethereum ETF inflows since 2023. Despite this potential, SOL must maintain its current level and break higher to sustain bullish momentum.
Bollinger Bands Show Upside Potential
Key technical indicators show SOL is holding just above its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at $155.607. The Bollinger Bands show resistance at $169.612 and support at $141.602, supporting the current upward price movement.
Trading above the SMA suggests modest bullish momentum, though SOL is far from the upper resistance band. Daily trading volume rose to 191.99K, indicating moderate growth in market interest. This volume expansion supports the idea of renewed investor activity near current levels.
MVRV Z-Score Points to Short-Term Risks
The MVRV Z-Score is at 28.749, suggesting the asset may be overvalued compared to historical averages. Elevated readings like this often lead to caution among traders, especially in the short-term.
However, price action since mid-April shows a series of higher lows, supporting the view of a gradual recovery. The recent breakout above the 20-day SMA strengthens this case, though resistance at $169.612 must be breached to confirm a broader uptrend.
June 17 Potential Scenarios
On the upside, if SOL remains above $155.607 and breaks $160, it may rise toward $164–$168. A move to $169.6 is possible. However, a drop below the 20-day SMA could push SOL to $147–$150, with extended support at $141.60 likely to be tested.
Overall, Solana’s recent gains, increased volume, and ETF-related developments create upward momentum. However, resistance levels and valuation remain as key metrics for valuation of next price signals.
