- Bitcoin faces resistance at $109K, with key support levels at $92K and $75K.
- Declining mining activity signals potential bearish momentum for BTC’s price.
- FTX’s $11B repayments may impact Bitcoin’s liquidity and short-term market trend.
Bitcoin remains around $95,248, struggling to gain momentum in the past two months as investors stay cautious. Despite fluctuating market conditions, analysts point to critical support levels that could determine its next move.
The digital asset faces resistance around $109,000, while key cost basis levels provide insights into potential downturns. Additionally, upcoming FTX repayments may serve as a catalyst, potentially influencing BTC’s trajectory in the near term.
Key Cost Basis Levels and Market Sentiment
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, highlights Bitcoin’s cost basis at different investor segments. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and custody wallets hold an average cost basis of $89,000, while Binance traders and mining companies are positioned at $59,000 and $57,000, respectively. Ju notes that Bitcoin falling below the $57,000 level has historically signaled a prolonged bear market, as seen in May 2022, March 2020, and November 2018.
#Bitcoin Cost Basis at $95K:
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) February 19, 2025
• ETFs/Custody Wallets: $89K
• Binance Traders: $59K
• Mining Companies: $57K – Falling below this level in past downturns (May 2022, March 2020, November 2018) confirmed a bear market.
• Old Whales: $25K – Never breached historically. pic.twitter.com/QlfUx8bO08
Additionally, long-term investors, or “old whales,” have maintained a cost basis of $25,000, which has never been breached. This suggests strong support from early adopters and institutional investors who continue to hold despite price fluctuations.
Bearish Pattern Signals Potential Downturn
Market analyst Peter Brandt warns that Bitcoin’s price action indicates a macro bearish sentiment. According to his analysis, BTC faces resistance at $109,000 and is forming a reversal pattern, possibly a double top. Moreover, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows bearish divergence, reinforcing concerns about a potential correction.
Double double toil and trouble 👿 in $btc pic.twitter.com/UJrNEfM26R
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) February 18, 2025
With Bitcoin currently hovering around $95,000, Brandt suggests that a retest of the $92,000 support level is likely. If this level is consistently breached, BTC could decline further toward $75,000.
Mining Activity Decline Raises Red Flags
Ali Martinez, a crypto analyst, notes that a drop in Bitcoin mining activity has historically preceded extended price corrections. Reduced mining activity may indicate a lack of confidence among miners or operational challenges affecting profitability. If this trend continues, it could add further downward pressure on BTC.
FTX Repayments Could Influence BTC’s Next Move
Despite recent stagnation, Bitcoin could see renewed interest as the FTX estate prepares to distribute over $11 billion to creditors and customers. Market participants are closely watching whether these repayments will inject liquidity into the crypto market or lead to increased sell pressure.
