- Gold faces resistance at $3,364.68 and $3,399.25; failure to break may lead to bearish pressure and altcoin momentum.
- A 96.6% chance of a Fed rate cut in September could fuel rallies in altcoins, Bitcoin, and stocks.
- Altcoin season may be near as dominance trends resemble 2018 and 2022, now rebounding from a 2.14M support level.
Despite widespread anticipation in the crypto market, altcoins remain suppressed as gold holds its strength near key resistance levels. Analyst Michael van de Poppe pointed to gold’s ongoing resilience as the reason for a muted altcoin breakout.
He added that a significant decline in gold is necessary before altcoins can regain momentum. The analyst further noted that upcoming decisions by the Federal Reserve remain key to how the broader market will move next.
Liquidity Sweeps and Bearish Pressure Near Gold’s Resistance
Gold recently had a liquidity grab near its May highs, where price action briefly moved above earlier swing points. This often occurs during periods of increased volatility when stop-loss orders are triggered above previous resistance levels.
However, the move failed to sustain, indicating market hesitation at the upper boundary. Gold faces resistance at $3,364.68 and again at $3,399.25. These zones are just beneath a visible red-shaded supply area.
Any attempt to push higher must clear these barriers. Otherwise, downward pressure could increase. The nearest support is at $3,201.68. Should prices fall further, analysts expect this level to temporarily hold. However, if broken, the next downside target is $3,080.
That level would mark a clear invalidation of the current uptrend. Volume indicators show that bearish activity intensifies during price drops, with RSI remaining under 70. This suggests neither overbought conditions nor signs of immediate bullish reversal.
Fed Liquidity Actions and Rate Expectations
Crypto Rover reported the Federal Reserve injected $11 billion into the overnight repo market, a move not seen in five years. According to the report, this indicates liquidity tightening and possible concern over elevated interest rates.
With cracks appearing across asset markets, attention has turned to the Fed’s next steps. Merlijn The Trader noted a 96.6% probability of a rate cut in September. He emphasized that similar cuts in past cycles led to strong rallies across Bitcoin, stocks, and altcoins.
This potential shift in policy has led many investors to re-evaluate their exposure to risk assets, particularly altcoins that remain stalled under current macro constraints.
Historical Altcoin Trends Suggest Season May Be Near
Altcoin dominance remains at historically low levels. According to Crypto Elites, this setup has previously marked the beginning of major altcoin seasons.
The current positioning is similar to 2018 and 2022, where Bitcoin dominance peaked before declining and giving room for altcoin outperformance. A technical pattern on Others.Dominance shows a recurring cycle, with the 2025 level near the lower channel trendline at 2.14M.
Previous altcoin runs began at similar trendline points, and projections now point to a move toward the upper range between 19M and 23M by 2026. While the short-term is unclear, the structure indicates that a major shift could be near.
Final Word
Altcoins remain rangebound while gold trades below key resistance. Analysts point to macro factors, including Fed liquidity and rate expectations, as critical to future direction. Liquidity grabs near gold’s highs and historical dominance patterns in crypto suggest possible shifts. However, confirmation depends on gold’s next move and the Fed’s monetary response.
