- BTC’s RSI at 36.64 nears oversold, but bearish momentum persists; a break above 40 to 45 may indicate recovery.
- The MACD is negative, but a signal line crossover hints at a potential reversal if buying pressure increases.
- Failure to hold $82K support could lead BTC toward $75K-$73K, while a breakout above $88K may push prices to $120K.
Bitcoin’s price movement has seen mixed projections from analysts, with some seeing a potential rally while others warn of a deeper drop. At the time of writing BTC was trading at $84,029.41, a 9.06% decline in the past 24 hours. The trading range for the day extends from $82,472.07 to $86,773.12, as bearish momentum builds following a retreat from highs above $100,000.
Support and Resistance Levels
Analyst Egrag Crypto notes the formation of a bearish engulfing candle on the three day timeframe.
#BTC : $73K by April 1st Before the Final Leg Up!
— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) March 4, 2025
I sometimes take risks with time predictions ⏳, but I believe it's worth sharing, even if it could backfire!
Currently, #BTC is forming a potential Bearish Engulfing Candle on the 3-day time frame. This could trigger further… pic.twitter.com/fAXT3Zi65c
This pattern suggests further downside risks, potentially pushing BTC toward $80,500 and even $73,000 by early April. The blue channel on the chart is crucial in assessing the strength and longevity of the ongoing trend.
According to Captain Faibik, Bitcoin is still trading within a rising wedge pattern on the weekly timeframe. The 50 week moving average at $75,700 is a critical support level.
$BTC is still trading within Rising Wedge on the Weekly Timeframe.. 📈
— Captain Faibik 🐺 (@CryptoFaibik) March 4, 2025
Weekly MA50 (75.7k) is acting as a key support level.
– A bounce from MA50 could push Bitcoin toward $120K in the coming weeks.
– However, if MA50 Support fails and the Wedge breaks down, Bitcoin may… pic.twitter.com/e8scfIDEmD
A successful rebound from this level could push BTC toward $120,000 in the coming weeks. However, a breakdown below this level might lead to a retest of the $54,000–$55,000 zone, raising concerns about a deeper correction.
Historical Trends Suggest Possible Further Declines
Ali points out that Bitcoin has historically followed a recurring pattern after reaching all time highs.
Before you FOMO, consider this! pic.twitter.com/49vqTTbuKx
— Ali (@ali_charts) March 3, 2025
In previous cycles; 2011, 2014, 2018, and 2021; BTC dropped to the 200 day moving average, rebounded to the 50 day moving average, faced rejection, and then declined further.
The same pattern appears to be developing now, as BTC has bounced from the 200 day moving average and is struggling around the 50 day mark. If history repeats, further downside could be imminent.
Technical Indicators Indicate Continued Caution
Bitcoin’s technical indicators also lean toward a bearish outlook. The RSI is at 36.64, approaching oversold levels but still above the 30 level. A recovery above 40 to 45 could indicate strengthening bullish momentum.
Meanwhile, the MACD is in a deep negative level, with the histogram confirming bearish momentum. However, the MACD line crossing above the signal line could suggest early signs of a potential reversal.
A break above $86,000 to $88,000 with increased volume could shift sentiment toward a bullish recovery. On the downside, failure to hold support between $82,000 and $80,000 might expose BTC to deeper losses, potentially testing the $78,000 to $75,000 range.
