- Long-term holders signal bullish momentum as accumulation mirrors past rally phases
- Whale wallets surge by 622 in four weeks, suggesting renewed investor confidence
- Historical cycle timing hints at 18-week parabolic growth phase starting soon
Bitcoin appears to be entering the most lucrative stage of its current market cycle, supported by key on-chain metrics and historical precedents. As the digital asset trades near $106,837, analysts suggest this could be the final consolidation before a breakout.
Despite a slight decline of 0.20% in the last 24 hours and a 2.25% dip over the past week, investor sentiment remains largely optimistic. With long-term holder (LTH) behavior mirroring previous accumulation phases, the outlook for Bitcoin’s next 6–8 weeks could be significantly bullish.
LTH Behavior Aligns with Historical Accumulation Patterns
According to analyst AxelAdlerJr, LTH spending is currently hovering near historic lows. This pattern has previously aligned with Bitcoin’s accumulation phases periods that often precede major rallies. In three of the last four similar cases, Bitcoin experienced a 18–25% surge within two months. Hence, if history repeats, Bitcoin could see new highs by late summer.
If we look at the entire Long-Term Holder cohort, their spending is currently close to minimum levels. Essentially, the current minimum in LTH spending coincides with the classic accumulation phase. In three out of four previous similar cases, such LTH behavior led to Bitcoin… pic.twitter.com/UkMeoK2AjC
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) June 17, 2025
Additionally, the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) momentum is positive, indicating that older coins are staying dormant a strong bullish signal. Moreover, the MVRV Z-score, a metric used to evaluate if Bitcoin is over or undervalued, remains in positive territory. Together, these indicators build a strong case for continued upward momentum.
Whales Return While Wallets with 10+ BTC Grow
Santiment data reveals a notable trend reversal in whale and shark behavior. After three months of declining numbers, the network has added 622 new wallets holding over 10 BTC in just under four weeks. This resurgence in larger wallets suggests renewed confidence among high-net-worth investors.
🐳 Bitcoin has surged as high as $108,947 with traders continuing to await another challenge of last month's $112,000 all-time high. Interestingly, after 3 months straight of declining whale & shark numbers, the $BTC network has 622 more 10+ $BTC wallets in just under 4 weeks. pic.twitter.com/NpKkC5zsj9
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) June 16, 2025
Furthermore, Bitcoin reached as high as $108,947 recently, prompting traders to anticipate a fresh attempt at breaching last month’s all-time high of $112,000. This renewed buying interest reflects strengthening bullish sentiment, even amid short-term price fluctuations.
Cyclical Timing Points to 18 Weeks of Growth
CryptoJelle points out that both of Bitcoin’s previous full cycles lasted exactly 1064 days from bottom to top. With the current cycle at day 910, the next 18 weeks could follow a historical pattern of parabolic growth. This phase, traditionally the most profitable, tends to occur after the halving event often pushing prices to new records.
If past trends hold true, the market may peak around October 2025. Key resistance lies at $130,000, but projections see potential beyond $200,000. Consequently, traders and investors are closely monitoring for the start of Bitcoin’s final and most explosive leg upward.
