- Futures market shows bearish tilt but aligns with typical consolidation phases
- Bitcoin’s cyclical trend suggests strong potential for 120% gains by year-end 2025
- Long-term metrics like Realized Cap signal strength despite short-term volatility
Bitcoin’s recent price behavior reflects a market caught between cautious short-term sentiment and a strong long-term structural trend. While the cryptocurrency has slipped slightly over the past week, data from futures markets and on-chain analysis suggest a broader bullish cycle remains intact.
Analysts note that despite modest bearish pressure, Bitcoin continues to hover near its all-time highs, revealing an underlying resilience that may define the next phase of this cycle.
Futures Market Shows Bearish Tilt Without Panic
According to AxelAdlerJr’s latest analysis, Futures Market Power stands at –93K as of June 18, indicating a moderate bearish bias. However, this figure doesn’t reflect panic or aggressive shorting. Instead, it aligns more with historical patterns of consolidation before upward continuation.
In previous instances January, April, and July 2024 similar bearish spikes led only to temporary 5–10% corrections. Hence, this current pressure may be less about market fear and more about strategic repositioning.
As of June 18, Futures Market Power stands at –93 K, indicating a moderate skew toward bearish positions but no signs of aggressive selling pressure. Bitcoin’s price remains confined to a narrow range, holding near all-time highs despite the bears’ pressure on the futures market.… pic.twitter.com/IS7aJarQok
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) June 18, 2025
Further reinforcing this idea, leveraged positions have declined over the past six months. Alphractal data reveals that the 180-day Open Interest (OI) Delta has turned red, signaling that more positions have closed than opened.
Major contributors to this contraction include Bitget, with a $7.42 billion reduction, and CME, down by $3.93 billion. Interestingly, Gate.io moved in the opposite direction, adding $3.2 billion in OI highlighting a divergence in exchange-specific sentiment.
Cyclical Patterns Still Favor Long-Term Growth
While short-term indicators suggest caution, Bitcoin’s historical cycle offers a more optimistic picture. Cryptoquant’s Bitcoin Yearly Percentage Trend helps cut through market noise by highlighting a recurring pattern, three years of growth followed by one of consolidation. This rhythm has held firm since 2011, aligning closely with Bitcoin’s halving cycles.
Currently in the third year of this bullish phase, Bitcoin could see an annual gain of around 120% in 2025. If that projection holds, the price could climb from $93,226 to approximately $205,097 before year-end. This would complete the latest four-year cycle, signaling a potential cycle top.
Moreover, metrics like Realized Cap have hit new highs in 2025, further confirming underlying strength. These long-term metrics offer essential guidance for investors navigating daily fluctuations.
Strategic Implications Amid Price Volatility
Bitcoin is trading at $105,143 as of press time, reflecting a 1.54% drop in the last 24 hours and a 3.95% dip over the week. However, this recent softness should not overshadow the broader narrative.
