- Bitcoin traders on Polymarket assign a 75% chance of surpassing $120K by 2025, with cautious bets on higher targets.
- Bitcoin’s market capitalization holds at $2.16 trillion as trading volumes increase 23.45% in 24 hours.
- Polymarket’s monthly volume rebounded 30% since April, with fewer traders but higher average volume per user.
Prediction market data from Polymarket shows growing interest in Bitcoin’s 2025 price outlook. Traders on the platform assigned a 75% probability that Bitcoin will surpass $120,000 by year-end, with the market attracting over $15.5 million in volume.
Additional forecasts place a 55% chance on Bitcoin breaking $130,000 and a 33% chance of crossing $150,000. Meanwhile, a more ambitious $200,000 target holds a lower probability of 13%, reflecting traders’ cautious approach toward extreme outcomes.
Bitcoin Forecasts Strong Long-Term Growth Amid Short-Term Caution
Polymarket’s short-term predictions show a more cautious outlook for Bitcoin, while another market estimates a 76% chance that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high before August. This reflects near-term uncertainty despite long-term optimism.
Moreover, data from CoinDataFlow puts Bitcoin’s value in 2025 at as high as $158,000, or as low as $64,000. Even more to the future, projections have Bitcoin highs of $192,000 for 2029 and $234,000 for 2033.
Current sentiment remains highly bullish at 97%, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral at 58.41. The 50-day simple moving average of Bitcoin still rises higher at $106,000, while the 200-day average remains at $96,000, indicating continued growth potential. Volatility is still elevated, which shows continuous swings in the market.
Platform Volume and User Activity Continue to Evolve
Polymarket’s trading volume and user base have experienced notable changes since late 2024. According to Dune Analytics, the platform’s monthly volume peaked at $2.6 billion during the 2024 U.S. election. Although activity moderated in early 2025, volume rebonded 30% from April to June, reaching $1.16 billion last month—over nine times higher than June last year.
The number of active traders stood at 241,000 during the previous month, 47% below the January high of 455,000. With fewer participants, average user trading volume increased from $2,000 in February to $4,800 in June, signaling a smaller group of more conviction-rich traders driving most activity.
Bitcoin Holds Steady as Trading Volume Rises
Bitcoin last traded at $108,714.56 at the time of writing, retreating 0.59% from the previous day. Its market cap stood at $2.16 trillion, and its fully diluted value stood at $2.28 trillion. The 24-hour trading volume reached $44.6 billion, rising 23.45%, and the volume-to-market-cap ratio was flat at 2.03%.
Polymarket’s Bitcoin all-time high market recorded $111,546 in volume, highlighting the continued engagement of traders in key Bitcoin prediction markets. Bitcoin’s market structure remains firm amid rising Polymarket activity. Traders are betting on higher year-end targets, while platform data reflects a shift toward fewer but more active market participants.
