- Bitcoin’s post-halving peak may shift as institutional support reduces volatility.
- Positive Coinbase Premium Gap and ETF flows signal steady U.S. investor demand.
- Over $5B in shorts risk liquidation above $113K, hinting at explosive upside.
Bitcoin’s market cycles have long fascinated investors. One trend, in particular, continues to spark debate its tendency to peak 18 months after each halving. According to Ash Crypto, this historical pattern could place the next cycle top around September 2025. While that timeline aligns with the potential for a Fed rate cut, there are new factors at play this cycle that suggest a departure from previous norms.
Unlike the wild volatility of earlier bull runs, the current uptrend appears more controlled. This change is largely attributed to institutional involvement.
Large players such as asset managers, pension funds, and ETF inflows have introduced a stabilizing force to Bitcoin’s price behavior. Additionally, the pace of gains is more gradual, signaling a slower, more sustained climb rather than a parabolic move.
BITCOIN TYPICALLY PEAKS 18 MONTHS AFTER EACH HALVING.
— Ash Crypto (@Ashcryptoreal) July 4, 2025
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF?
Historically, Bitcoin reaches its cycle peak around 18 months after each halving.
If this pattern holds, the next peak could occur in September, aligning with a potential Fed rate cut.
But what… pic.twitter.com/4OuJeZfIlc
Less Volatility, More Institutional Control
Institutional demand continues to play a crucial role in Bitcoin’s steady rise. Since April, the Coinbase Premium Gap has stayed positive an indicator tracked by CryptoBusy. This reflects strong spot buying activity from U.S.-based investors.
At the same time, whale selling has cooled, removing key downward pressure. Support has emerged between $85,000 and $95,000, creating a solid base for future moves.
GM BITCOIN! $BTC buyers have been in control since April.
— CryptoBusy (@CryptoBusy) July 4, 2025
Whale selling pressure has faded, and premium strength is holding.
The trend is up.
The second half of 2025 could surprise many. pic.twitter.com/6HUxvIf2IQ
Moreover, global M2 money supply is increasing, and ETF flows remain steady. These macroeconomic tailwinds could support Bitcoin’s price throughout the second half of 2025.
According to CryptoBusy, a daily close above $112,000 could open the door to a rally toward $120,000. This threshold also aligns with intense short liquidation activity, highlighting a key inflection point for price acceleration.
Massive Short Liquidation Awaits at $113K
Kyle Chassé draws attention to a critical technical milestone if Bitcoin hits $113,000, over $5 billion in short positions could be liquidated. A liquidation map from CoinGlass reveals a sharp increase in short leverage at that price.
The largest exposures are on Bybit, where $44.08 million worth of shorts sit vulnerable. Binance and OKX also show substantial figures at $13.11 million and $8.61 million, respectively.
These concentrated positions indicate a potential short squeeze event. Should the price spike past that level, it could force mass closures, further fueling upward momentum. This type of chain reaction has historically led to rapid price surges, particularly during bullish sentiment phases.
