- Bitcoin’s $104K close in May confirms it is still deep in a bullish market cycle
- On-chain metrics show strong hands with recent buys averaging $96K per BTC
- RSI trends and models suggest Bitcoin may reach $250K to $1M this cycle
Bitcoin closed May with a record high of $104,000, surpassing its earlier peak of $102,000 from earlier this year. This new milestone adds weight to the growing consensus among analysts that the digital asset remains deep in a bullish phase. According to PlanB, an analytic firm, Bitcoin’s June prediction highlights a cycle that is longer and flatter than the bull markets of 2017 and 2020.
On-Chain Metrics Show Strong Fundamentals
Recent on-chain analysis paints a bullish picture. The realized price, which reflects the average purchase price of all coins, sits at $47,000. For coins moved in the last two years, that number rises to $81,000.
More significantly, coins transacted in the last five months show an average price of $96,000. With the market price closing May at $104,000, Bitcoin currently trades above all these metrics. This alignment usually indicates strength in a bull market, as newer buyers continue to hold rather than panic sell.
Additionally, the divergence between arithmetic and geometric moving averages historically visible only during bull phases is now clearly present. This separation often signals positive momentum. Besides, the 200-week moving average has risen to $48,000, further anchoring price action well above long-term support levels.
RSI and Price Projections Point to Upside
Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has averaged 65 over the past year and now sits at 69. Though traditional investors often react to an RSI above 70, Bitcoin tends to perform differently.
Historical data shows Bitcoin can hold an RSI over 80 for several months. This has often led to monthly returns of 40% or more. If that pattern repeats, prices could approach $400,000 in the near term.
Moreover, while some traders are cautious, the broader model-based outlook is optimistic. One particular market model not to be confused with the popular stock-to-flow suggests Bitcoin is still undervalued. Based on historical patterns, the model anticipates the average price for this cycle could land between $250,000 and $1 million.
