- Ripple’s IPO timing hinges on SEC’s legal decisions and new leadership actions.
- SEC’s appeal against Ripple’s decision risks further delays and potential Supreme Court loss.
- Ripple’s public offering may occur in early 2026, pending legal resolution and settlement.
Ripple’s long-anticipated IPO may soon be on the horizon, with speculation surrounding its timing and the future of its ongoing legal battles. According to cryptocurrency advocate John E. Deaton, Ripple’s decision to go public has been influenced by the shifting landscape of regulatory oversight.
Ripple’s CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, has stated that an IPO is likely in the last quarter of 2025 or the first quarter of 2026, contingent on the actions of the new SEC Chairman, Paul Atkins. Ripple’s future appears closely tied to the resolution of its legal case with the SEC, a matter that is far from settled.
The SEC’s Appeal: Why It Doesn’t Make Sense
The question of whether the SEC will appeal the favorable decision in Ripple’s case remains pivotal. Deaton argues that appealing the case would be detrimental to the SEC.
The ruling by Judge Torres, which found that Ripple’s secondary sales of XRP did not constitute securities transactions, is not binding precedent and has been criticized by various legal experts. The decision was highly specific to the facts of the Ripple case, making it less likely to have far-reaching implications for other cryptocurrencies.
In addition, the ruling did not fully address all factors of the Howey Test, a critical element in determining whether a transaction constitutes the sale of securities. Judge Torres ruled that the SEC failed to prove the third factor of the Howey Test, which involves the reliance of investors on Ripple and its executives. Consequently, even if the SEC wins an appeal, it could ultimately lead to a remand back to Judge Torres, where the same conclusion might be reached.
Why an Appeal Would Be a Strategic Mistake for the SEC
If the SEC proceeds with an appeal, it risks significant legal consequences. An appeal would likely lead to further delays, and if Ripple loses, it could take the case to the U.S. Supreme Court.
The Supreme Court might take the case due to the broader legal implications for the digital asset industry. A ruling from the Supreme Court could result in a major loss for the SEC, especially given the evolving nature of digital assets and the outdated laws being applied to them.
Ripple’s IPO Timing: The Key Factors
The timing of Ripple’s IPO is still uncertain, but much depends on how quickly the new SEC Chairman, Paul Atkins, moves to address the case. Ripple is expected to pay any fines and settle the case, paving the way for the company to pursue its IPO.
If the appeal is withdrawn soon, Ripple’s public offering could happen as early as the first quarter of 2026. However, Washington’s slow pace of decision-making means the IPO might be delayed until the second quarter of 2026.
