- Polymarket odds for a U.S. Bitcoin reserve drop from 60% to 28%, signaling doubt.
- Logistical and regulatory hurdles dampen hopes for a Bitcoin reserve within 100 days.
- Crypto community divided on government involvement in Bitcoin as skepticism grows.
The probability of Donald Trump establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve within his first 100 days in office has seen a significant decline. On Polymarket, a popular prediction platform, odds for this outcome have dropped from 60% in November to just 28% as of late Sunday.
This notable shift reflects diminishing confidence among crypto enthusiasts regarding the feasibility of such a bold move early in Trump’s presidency. Despite initial optimism, several factors are contributing to the waning belief in this possibility.
Declining Odds Highlight Growing Skepticism
Initially, optimism for a pro-crypto administration led to high expectations for the establishment of a U.S. Bitcoin reserve. Polymarket bettors were hopeful, with odds peaking at 60% shortly after the U.S. elections.
However, confidence has since eroded. By mid-November, odds dipped below 30%, briefly rebounding to 45% later in the month before declining again. By January, the probability fell to a low of 22%, signaling broader uncertainty among market participants.
Challenges to Creating a Bitcoin Reserve
Several challenges have dampened enthusiasm for a Bitcoin reserve within Trump’s first 100 days. Establishing such a reserve involves complex regulatory, economic, and logistical hurdles.
Even with executive orders, implementation requires coordination among government agencies like the Treasury, which could take months. Many believe that 100 days is insufficient to address these complexities, including assessing the reserve’s potential impact on the U.S. economy.
Moreover, critics argue that the U.S. government should not interfere with Bitcoin’s decentralized nature. Some industry experts view BTC as “the people’s money” and caution against government involvement, which could undermine its core principles.
Mixed Reactions Within the Crypto Community
The crypto community remains divided on the prospect of a Bitcoin reserve. Optimists highlight Trump’s pro-crypto allies, including Senator Cynthia Lummis, as potential drivers of swift action.
They argue that establishing a reserve could position the U.S. as a global leader in cryptocurrency. However, skeptics point out that Trump’s administration may prioritize other issues, delaying progress on this front.
