- Bitcoin’s largest exchange outflow since January 2023 signals strong re-accumulation.
- Historical cycles suggest Bitcoin’s next peak may occur between August and September 2025.
- Weekly RSI support hints at a potential Bitcoin rally toward the $128,000 price level.
Bitcoin’s exchange netflow chart has recently exhibited a strong trend, as analyzed by CryptoOnchain. The 90-day moving average shows the largest Bitcoin outflow from exchanges since January 2023.
This movement suggests that investors are increasingly withdrawing Bitcoin from exchanges, often interpreted as a sign of re-accumulation. Historically, such substantial outflows have preceded major price rallies, indicating growing confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value.
Historical Cycle Peaks
EGRAG CRYPTO’s technical analysis focuses on Bitcoin’s movement concerning Fibonacci 1.0 levels and key cycle trends. The primary aspect of this analysis is the duration of Bitcoin’s consolidation below Fibonacci 1.0 and the period required to reach previous cycle tops. Observing past market cycles, Bitcoin has followed a recognizable pattern of consolidation and subsequent price surges.
In prior bull cycles, Bitcoin demonstrated consistent behavior. In Cycle A, Bitcoin consolidated for one month before taking nine months to reach its peak. In Cycle B, the consolidation phase lasted three months, followed by an eight-month rise to the cycle top.
Cycle C, based on the November 2021 peak, saw only a month of consolidation before reaching its peak twelve months later. The ongoing Cycle D has seen an extended consolidation period of eight months, with five months already elapsed toward a potential peak.
Based on historical patterns, projections suggest that the upcoming cycle top could occur between August and September 2025. The average time taken to reach the peak across previous cycles is approximately 9.6 months. EGRAG CRYPTO anticipates that Bitcoin’s price will likely reach its next cycle top within three to six months, making this a crucial period for market participants.
#BTC – Fib 1, 21 EMA, and Cycle Tops: ( 3-6 Months)
— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) March 19, 2025
My analysis is centered around Fib 1.0, and the chart below is based on the monthly time frame.
Fib 1.0 Analysis:
1⃣ How many months has #BTC consolidated below Fib 1.0 in previous cycles?
2⃣ How many months did it take for… pic.twitter.com/NmAxcgMXUf
Potential Price Movements
Another key indicator, the Weekly RSI, has been emphasized by analyst Mags. The RSI’s 45 level has acted as a crucial support zone, marking two previous local bottoms, each followed by significant price increases.
The first test at $25,000 led to a 193% rally, sending Bitcoin to $73,100. The second test at $52,500 resulted in a 107% increase, pushing Bitcoin to $109,400. Most recently, Bitcoin’s price dipped to $76,600, testing this critical RSI level again.
If this support holds, Bitcoin could be poised for another major surge. A potential 64% price increase aligns with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level, which could push Bitcoin’s value to approximately $128,000. Investors are closely monitoring this level as it may determine the next significant movement in Bitcoin’s price action.
Current Market Performance and Outlook
At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $85,975.23, reflecting a 3.02% gain in the past 24 hours and a 3.52% increase over the past week. With a market capitalization of approximately $1.7 trillion and a trading volume of $38 billion, Bitcoin remains in a strong position.
