- Bitcoin ETF outflows hint at potential supply shock, fueling a bullish price surge.
- BlackRock’s IBIT sees inflows, while Grayscale’s GBTC continues to face withdrawals.
- Total Bitcoin ETP net inflows remain strong despite recent outflows and price decline.
Bitcoin’s price movements have historically correlated with ETF net flows, and the latest data hints at a possible bullish rally. Crypto analyst Crypto Rover suggests that heavy ETF outflows often precede significant price increases. If this trend continues, Bitcoin could be on the verge of a major upward move.
ETF Outflow-Price Correlation
Historically, large ETF outflows initially cause Bitcoin price dips. However, these declines are often followed by strong rebounds. Data from May 2024 and October 2024 show that major outflows led to substantial price recoveries.
The latest outflow event in March 2025 is the largest yet, hinting at a potential price surge. The reasoning behind this trend is that heavy selling by short-term investors reduces available liquidity, paving the way for a supply shock. This scarcity effect can drive Bitcoin’s price higher.
The higher the ETF outflows,
— Crypto Rover (@rovercrc) March 14, 2025
The bigger the Bitcoin pump will be! pic.twitter.com/xGhrv7K045
Market Overview: Bitcoin ETP Performance
According sosovalue data as of March 13, Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) experienced a significant outflow of funds. The daily total net inflow stood at -$143.30 million, reflecting more withdrawals than investments.
Despite this, the cumulative net inflow remains strong at $35.27 billion. Meanwhile, total traded value reached $2.53 billion, and total net assets amounted to $89.60 billion, accounting for 5.62% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization.
Key ETP Performances
Notably, BlackRock’s IBIT, traded on NASDAQ, saw a net inflow of $45.75 million, pushing cumulative net inflows to $39.33 billion. In contrast, Fidelity’s FBTC experienced an outflow of -$75.48 million.
Grayscale’s GBTC faced continued investor withdrawals, with a daily net outflow of -$12.68 million and cumulative outflows of -$22.50 billion. Ark & 21Shares’ ARKB also recorded -$60.23 million in daily outflows.
Market Impact and Potential Outlook
All major Bitcoin ETPs experienced over a 3% market price decline on March 13. The decline aligned with broader weakness in Bitcoin-related assets. However, trading volumes remained strong, with IBIT leading at 42.87 million shares traded.
