- Boomers selling assets may trigger inflation, taxes, or intergenerational conflict.
- Capital repatriation in Asia signals shifting global wealth and stronger EM currencies.
- Hayes predicts Bitcoin could soar as liquidity grows and U.S. capital controls tighten.
The global financial system is heading toward a significant inflection point, says Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom. As Baby Boomers begin to offload trillions in assets to fund their retirement, a looming question arises whether the younger generation want to buy what the older generation is selling.
Hayes believes the answer isn’t straightforward and the fallout could involve large-scale money printing, heightened intergenerational conflict, and a shift in global capital flows.
Great Wealth Transfer and Asset Imbalance
As Boomers attempt to liquidate stocks, real estate, and other legacy assets, demand from younger generations appears tepid. Millennials and Gen Z often prioritize experiences over ownership, and many simply can’t afford these assets.
Consequently, asset prices could stagnate or fall, especially in illiquid markets like suburban housing. If these falling prices threaten retiree livelihoods, Hayes suggests governments might resort to money printing or higher taxes on younger earners.
However, such fiscal solutions risk triggering social discord. Younger people may resist footing the bill for a retirement crisis they didn’t create. The resulting tension could fuel political instability, especially if government responses lean heavily on inflationary monetary policy.
Currency Flows, Capital Controls, and Bitcoin’s Ascent
Hayes also pointed to a growing shift in currency dynamics, especially in Asia. Taiwan, for example, recently saw a sharp appreciation in its dollar due to life insurers repatriating foreign investments.
This trend, he notes, is mirrored in countries like South Korea, Singapore, and Thailand. As capital flows return home, emerging markets may see stronger currencies and richer consumer classes possibly at the expense of U.S. markets.
In parallel, Hayes sees capital controls on the horizon in the U.S., including new withholding taxes on foreign-held Treasury bonds. This could reduce foreign demand for U.S. assets, prompting the Fed or banking system to fill the gap with printed money. While this may avert a crash, it could also fuel risk asset rallies including Bitcoin.
Future of Crypto and Financial Infrastructure
Hayes expects Bitcoin to hit $250,000 by year-end and $1 million by 2028, driven by global liquidity expansion. He remains skeptical about most altcoins, citing poor product-market fit and overvaluation. Instead, he favors cash-flow-positive protocols and real-world utility.
Maelstrom, his firm, is launching a buyout fund targeting high-margin crypto businesses for public listing via U.S. SPACs. As Hayes puts it, the future belongs to projects with real earnings, not speculative hype.
