- Polymarket shows only a 34% chance of XRP ETF approval by July 31, 2025, signaling short-term market doubt.
- Despite delays, 84% of traders anticipate ETF approval by year-end 2025, showing strong long-term institutional optimism.
- XRP consolidates between $1.80 and $3.20; support at $2.33 remains firm as traders await regulatory clarity.
As the cryptocurrency market continues to weigh regulatory developments, the prospects of a Ripple (XRP) exchange-traded fund (ETF) have taken center stage on prediction markets. Based on Polymarket data, the possibility of an XRP ETF being approved by July 31, 2025, has fallen to 34% since the last update which means people in the community are becoming less optimistic about fast progress. However, 2025 looks promising, as 84% of respondents expect the deal to be approved by the end of this year.
XRP ETF: Short-Term Doubts, Long-Term Optimism
Market sentiment appears split between near-term and long-term expectations. Even though crypto ETFs have been approved for Bitcoin and Ethereum, XRP still seems to encounter extra barriers. However, the volume of trade on Polymarket for the July 31 contract exceeded $160,000, showing a high level of interest in the event.
On the other hand, the forecast from Polymarket for December 31, 2025, suggests better results. The probability of an XRP ETF being approved by that date rose 14% to 84%, suggesting that traders expect progress within the calendar year, even if short-term delays persist. This optimism could stem from increasing institutional interest in XRP and ongoing developments in Ripple’s landscape.
Price Action Holds Firm Amid Speculation
XRP experienced a strong rally from $0.50 in October 2024 to a high of $3.55 in December 2024. Since its low point, the price has stayed within a narrow range of $1.80 to $3.20. Meanwhile, XRP is currently trading at $2.37, reflecting a 1.32% intraday decline.
Source: CoinMarketCap
XRP’s support is holding at $2.33, with resistance noted at $2.43. Technical stability in this zone could prove significant if ETF developments gain momentum later this year.
What’s Next for XRP?
XRP is in a sensitive phase, with its recent price drop driven mainly by ETF approval delays. While sentiment is low, it’s largely emotional and could rebound quickly if any ETF gains approval. For now, price action may stay volatile. Although the situation seems shaky at the moment, long-term investors still believe the industry will be approved in the end.
