- Open Interest Net Position has fallen to its most bearish level since early July, reflecting increased short-term downside pressure.
- Transfers tied to a known 80K BTC whale have coincided with Bitcoin’s decline toward key support near $115,110.
- Despite a 1.8% daily drop, the current -6% drawdown is only slightly deeper than the historical weekly average of 3.8%.
Bitcoin is facing mounting sell-side pressure as futures positioning plunges into deeply negative territory. According to recent data, the Open Interest (OI) Net Position dropped below the $-100 million mark, reaching the most bearish level recorded since early July. This shift highlights growing caution among leveraged traders.
Despite these developments, Bitcoin continues to hold above $116,000, with the current price at $116,235, reflecting a 1.8% decline over the past 24 hours. The market remains range-bound for now, with buyers actively absorbing some of the selling pressure near key levels.
Whale Transfers Weigh on Bitcoin as Price Tests Range Support
One of the key drivers behind the ongoing pressure is wallet activity linked to Galaxy Digital. Blockchain records show that more than $2 billion worth of Bitcoin has been transferred to exchanges in recent days. These flows are associated with a known 80,000 BTC whale that has previously impacted market liquidity. Following these transfers, Bitcoin’s price action slowed considerably, testing its support level at $115,110 while sweeping local liquidity.
The asset currently trades just above that key support and remains within its established 24-hour range. Analysts now watch closely for potential downside follow-through. A breakdown from the current structure could lead to a retest of ~$113,500, a level consistent with previous short-term corrections. At the top, resistance is defined near $119,415, marking the upper bound of the ongoing consolidation range.
Negative Futures Positioning Keeps BTC Volatility Risk Elevated
Despite the sharp appearance of recent moves, current price action fits within historical norms. Data shows the steepest five-minute timeframe drawdowns in past quarters reached -10% and -12%, while the average weekly pullback is 3.8%. The current -6% drawdown is only slightly deeper than average by 2.2 % points, suggesting this remains part of a typical consolidation phase. Although Bitcoin is trading near the bottom of its short-term range, no structural breakdown has yet occurred. Still, persistent negative futures positioning reflects heightened risk. Until futures open interest stabilizes, further selling pressure cannot be ruled out.
The sharp shift in futures net position may increase volatility risk. Historically, heavily negative positioning creates the conditions for short squeezes when prices recover. Yet, absent a sustained rebound, the deep bearish divergence in open interest continues to dominate the short-term outlook.
For now, Bitcoin trades cautiously between its defined $115,110 support and $119,415 resistance, with sellers maintaining momentum below the 24-hour high. Bitcoin holds key support amid whale activity and negative futures positioning, yet continued pressure could challenge the current consolidation range.
