- Bitcoin’s Polymarket odds of outperforming gold rise 12% in just two days.
- $IBIT ETF hits $76B AUM, surpassing MicroStrategy and rivaling gold’s legacy.
- Despite gold’s strength, Bitcoin’s bullish projections hint at greater future gains.
Bitcoin is quickly reshaping the traditional safe-haven landscape, stepping into a role long dominated by gold. As of July 12, 2025, the Polymarket prediction market shows a 65% probability that Bitcoin will outperform gold by year-end. This shift marks a 12% rise in sentiment since July 10.
While gold remains a reliable hedge, a growing number of investors now view Bitcoin as “digital gold.” The shift is especially significant amid ongoing global conflicts and economic uncertainty, which have fueled interest in both assets. Despite gold’s long-standing legacy, Bitcoin’s rapid market gains suggest that investor priorities are changing.
Bitcoin Gains Momentum Amid ETF Surge
One of the key factors driving Bitcoin’s surge is the explosive growth of exchange-traded funds like $IBIT. The ETF has now crossed $76 billion in assets under management, a record in the crypto space.
This milestone comes less than a year after the fund’s launch. In comparison, the largest gold ETF, $GLD, took over 15 years to reach the same level. Bitcoin’s ETF holdings have now exceeded 700,000, surpassing even MicroStrategy’s long-held leadership in Bitcoin accumulation.
Moreover, institutional adoption continues to rise as more funds reallocate from gold to Bitcoin. This trend points to a larger shift in sentiment where digital assets are now considered viable long-term stores of value. The trading volume on platforms like Polymarket over $5,000 in recent days highlights growing public interest in Bitcoin’s potential.
Gold Maintains Strength Despite Digital Rivals
Still, gold isn’t backing down. The precious metal has gained 40% in the past 12 months and 80% over the past five years.
As inflation concerns rise and the US dollar weakens, analysts expect gold prices to climb as high as $5,000. In a more optimistic scenario, gold could hit $7,000 by 2030. That would make a $1,000 investment today worth over $2,100, depending on future market dynamics.
However, Bitcoin’s projected gains still outpace gold. Conservative estimates see Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by 2030, turning a $1,000 investment into $1,271. In the most bullish case $500,000 per BTC the same investment could return over $4,200.
