- Bitcoin’s open interest dip signals caution, but deeper drawdowns may trigger volatility
- Reclaiming $106K is crucial for Bitcoin to aim toward $108.9K and a potential ATH
- Bullish wedge breakout points to $135K target if Bitcoin maintains strength above $73K
Bitcoin is navigating a critical juncture as traders weigh its next move following a mild correction and structural shifts in open interest. With prices as of press time hovering near $103,490, down 1.22% over the last 24 hours, market sentiment remains cautious yet watchful.
Several prominent analysts have weighed in on the situation, pointing to essential technical and macro indicators that could dictate Bitcoin’s short-term direction. As global liquidity fluctuates and volatility brews, Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim or hold specific levels will be crucial for its next breakout.
Open Interest Shrinks What It Means for Bitcoin’s Trajectory
Open interest (OI) in Bitcoin futures has recently seen a moderate 3.5% decline, signaling a light reduction in leveraged positions. According to analyst AxelAdlerJr, this shift is relatively tame but could foreshadow more significant outflows.
Historically, OI drawdowns of 20–25% have triggered price drops between 7% and 21%. Consequently, if OI dips toward those historic lows again, Bitcoin could see a sharper correction in the range of 5–15%.
GM.
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) June 20, 2025
In 2024–2025, deep open interest drawdowns –20–25% were accompanied by local BTC price corrections in the range of 7–21%.
Currently, the OI change is –3.5%, which indicates a moderate outflow of positions. In case of a repeated OI decline to levels of –20%, a Bitcoin… pic.twitter.com/BcIGZkM0EZ
While the current dip in OI does not yet suggest panic, it reflects traders pulling back in response to increasing uncertainty. This retreat in futures interest may be setting the stage for either a healthy reset or deeper volatility if the trend continues.
Demand Zones, Key Levels, and the Path to $135,000
Michaël van de Poppe sees current price levels as an opportunity for strategic spot accumulation. He highlights the $103K zone as a strong demand area, historically marked by heavy volume and buyer activity.
The next major resistance lies at $106.3K. If Bitcoin can reclaim and hold this level, it could initiate a momentum-driven surge toward $108.9K and possibly a new all-time high.
However, failure to reclaim $106K might drag Bitcoin below $100K, where van de Poppe sees the next accumulation zone. This makes the $100K–$106K range a battleground for Bitcoin’s near-term future.
Meanwhile, Titan of Crypto remains bullish on the larger structure. He identifies Bitcoin’s breakout from a descending broadening wedge as a significant technical event.
As long as the price stays above the breakout line near $73K, the bullish case stays intact. The breakout pattern projects an ambitious target of $135,000, suggesting plenty of room for upside if momentum builds.
