- ETH is testing a multi-year symmetrical triangle and a reversal in ETH/BTC strength, signaling potential for macro bullish momentum.
- Ethereum’s shrinking exchange supply suggests a looming supply crunch as investor accumulation intensifies.
- ADA is retesting key technical levels with tightening moving averages—setting the stage for a potential breakout move.
Ethereum is currently testing a multi-year lower trendline in a symmetrical triangle pattern on the weekly chart, which has spurred speculation of a bullish breakout. This technical pattern—years in the making via price consolidation—is nearing its apex as Ethereum faces off against both macro resistance and rekindled investor interest.
ETH’s relative performance versus Bitcoin has recently begun to show signs of bottoming, creating a reversal pattern that could be the early indication of a long-awaited change in altcoin dominance. Traders are keeping a close eye on whether ETH/BTC can close above its 20-week moving average—a level it has not held in many months. A confirmed break above this level would be an early sign of macro bullish momentum, especially if the 20-week moving average begins to trend higher above the 50-week, which would be a decisive change in trend.
Ethereum Exchange Supply Hits 7-Year Low, Suggesting Supply Crunch
The fact that Ethereum being held on exchanges has reached its lowest in seven years boosts the bullish argument further. This means there may be a short-term supply shortage, since both investors and retail buyers are buying more in hope for price appreciation. As the price of ETH declines against BTC, the tightening of liquid supply might lead to upward pressure.
If things shift in the broader economy and the Fed stops tightening, Ethereum could experience a strong upward movement. Generally, altcoins gain traction when there is more money flowing in the market and Ethereum could take the lead.
Ethereum Gains Momentum Amid ETF Speculation
The market is reacting to unconfirmed reports that BlackRock is actively pushing for a spot Ethereum staking ETF. This development has sparked renewed optimism among traders and long-term holders alike. Some analysts have even floated bold predictions, suggesting Ethereum could reach valuations between $10,000 and $12,000 if such an ETF is approved. While this speculation is still premature, it underscores the growing institutional interest in Ethereum’s yield-generating capabilities through staking.
Ethereum is trading at $2,606.46, a 3.9% price increase and a sign of positive short-term momentum. Key technical levels show support at $2,482.52 and resistance at $2,644.95. The market’s risk indicators are currently neutral, pointing to a consolidative and indecisive period—conditions not dissimilar to those seen in 2017 and 2020, just prior to Ethereum experiencing significant rallies.
Short-term targets are seeing the price close over the 20-week moving average and then press forward to the 50-week moving average. Reaching these goals would demonstrate that ETH/BTC’s price is more likely to continue rising.
Cardano Compresses Near Key Support, Eyes Breakout Potential
Cardano (ADA) is also entering a critical phase. The weekly chart shows ADA consolidating tightly around its 200-week moving average—considered by some analysts as the foundational support of a bull cycle. Repeated tests of this level suggest a “pressure cooker” scenario, where prolonged compression could eventually lead to an explosive move.
ADA recently broke above a speculative inverse head-and-shoulders neckline, and is now retesting it in a classic “throwback” pattern. If this support holds, ADA could resume a move toward $1.00. However, ADA’s price action has been choppy, and past fakeouts—like the one seen in October 2023—urge caution.
Short-term moving averages (20-day, 50-day, and 200-day) are beginning to tighten, signaling that a significant directional move may be nearing. Key resistance lies at $0.71, $0.74, and $0.83. If ADA breaks above these levels, a meaningful rally may unfold. On the downside, a return to the $0.58–$0.64 Fibonacci support range remains possible, especially if bulls fail to regain momentum. Like Ethereum, Cardano appears to be in a transition zone—neither decisively bullish nor bearish—awaiting a macro or technical catalyst.
While skepticism around altcoins remains due to prior underperformance, the setup now mirrors past pre-bull conditions. Should Ethereum’s breakout materialize and broader liquidity conditions align, a renewed altcoin cycle may begin with Ethereum and Cardano leading the charge.
