- Bitcoin’s rally stalled after Trump’s 50% EU tariff threat; legal and political uncertainty is spiking volatility.
- Social sentiment flipped from euphoria to fear within days of the $112K high, reflecting crowd-driven volatility.
- Whale activity surged with 18,700 large BTC transfers, while 147K BTC moved to self-custody, hinting at long-term accumulation.
Bitcoin’s recent rally to a record $112,000 has come under immediate pressure amid renewed tariff tensions and rising investor unease. Just one day after hitting the all-time high on May 22, 2025, the market cooled rapidly following President Trump’s 50% tariff threat on European Union imports as per Santiment.
Although the White House paused the measure two days later, similar to earlier delays on April 9, the fear it led to remained. Then, on May 28, a U.S. federal court ruled the “Liberation Day” tariffs unconstitutional, stating they bypassed Congress.
While the administration appealed, citing emergency powers, the legal challenge led to fresh concerns over future trade actions. This backdrop of uncertainty has intensified market sensitivity, highlighting how closely Bitcoin’s price tracks global headlines.
Emotional Shifts Align With Volatile Market Behavior
Social sentiment has repeatedly shown a direct link to Bitcoin’s direction. On May 22, when prices peaked, Santiment noted a surge in positive crowd mood. However, prices reversed quickly as overly bullish expectations set in.
Notably, many retail traders were hoping for a move past $115K. By May 25, sentiment flipped to extreme fear after Bitcoin dropped to $106K. The rebound that followed showed how abrupt emotional turns now often lead market direction.
This behavior is further emphasized by Santiment’s social data tracking “tariff” mentions, which spiked in late May, coinciding with market pullbacks. These shifts resemble the sentiment patterns from early April, when a similar tariff pause triggered a market bounce.
On-Chain Activity Shows Long-Term Accumulation Trends
Beyond sentiment, blockchain data shows continued supply outflows from exchanges. Since January 2025, over 147,000 BTC have moved to self-custody. This trend often points to long-term accumulation, reducing short-term selling pressure.
Supporting this, Bitcoin’s Mean Dollar Invested Age (MDIA) has dropped steadily since mid-April, suggesting older coins are re-entering circulation during this rally.
The MVRV ratio also showed profit-taking on May 22. Both 30 day and 365 day holders were in major profit, aligning with historical tops. In contrast, prior lows on March 10 and April 7 saw both metrics in the red, marking buying opportunities.
Whale Activity Peaks As Retail Speculation Surges
Whale transactions surged last week with over 18,700 Bitcoin transfers above $100K, the highest since January. These large movements, often tied to institutions, align with market peaks or bottoms. Notably, a viral post from “cryptobeastreal” revealed a 40 times leveraged whale long worth $1.2B.
If liquidated below $104,810, it could lead to big long position losses. As the market embraces the May 28 court ruling and anticipates the July 9 tariff decision, the crowd sentiment, whale behavior, and on-chain indicators will likely influence Bitcoin’s path.
