- Bitcoin’s rise to $107K fuels optimism, but on-chain demand metrics flash red
- Long-term holders increase selling, hinting at a possible local market top ahead
- Realized supply ratio shows neutral valuation, leaving BTC direction uncertain
As Bitcoin climbs above $107,000 with just over a day left until a key prediction market resolution, optimism runs high among traders. Polymarket data reveals a 92% predicted chance that Bitcoin will remain above $105,000 by 12 PM on July 1.
This probability has surged by 41% in recent days, with trading volume on the platform reaching $459,198. The confidence spike began accelerating noticeably from June 29, showing a clear bullish sentiment in the short term. However, beneath the surface, troubling signals from on-chain metrics suggest the rally may be skating on thin ice.
Market Confidence Peaks, Yet Demand Weakens
Despite strong upward price action, Bitcoin’s fundamental market structure is flashing warning signs. According to CryptoQuant, the “Apparent Demand” metric has flipped negative.
This signals a demand shortfall, as the influx of newly mined coins and sales from long-term holders (LTHs) now outweighs buyer activity. This imbalance suggests that recent price strength may be unsustainable.
The Bitcoin Distribution by Realized Supply metric shows how expensive Bitcoin currently is relative to what all holders have invested in it.
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) June 30, 2025
Realized Supply is the total dollar value of all BTC calculated using the prices at which coins were last moved on the network.
Ratio =… pic.twitter.com/JD4Trieo9r
Besides increasing the available supply, LTH activity often indicates broader sentiment shifts. These holders typically act with market insight and strategic intent. Hence, their profit-taking behavior can imply that they expect a local top or limited upside ahead. The resulting oversupply could limit further gains, even as short-term sentiment remains bullish.
Realized Supply Ratio Signals Neutral Valuation
AxelAdlerJr, an on-chain analyst, highlights the “Bitcoin Distribution by Realized Supply” ratio. This metric compares the current market price with the average cost basis of all holders. It acts similarly to the price-to-earnings ratio in equities, revealing whether the market is overvalued or undervalued.
Currently, this ratio sits just above its yearly average, indicating that Bitcoin is neither overbought nor oversold. This same level appeared in November 2024 before the asset surged from $74,000 to $107,000. While not predictive, it reflects a neutral market zone. Consequently, the market could break either way depending on whether demand recovers or supply pressure persists.
Cautious Path Forward
As of press time, Bitcoin is priced at $107,578, representing a 0.11% daily increase and a 5.53% weekly gain. The total circulating supply stands at 20 million BTC, giving it a market cap of over $2.1 trillion.
